Sheikh Abdullah has done well to take the country into confidence and let it know that infiltration has taken place into Jammu and Kashmir from across the line of actual control. As is only to be expected in such cases, he has neither disclosed the magnitude of the problem nor speculated on the possible motives of the infiltrators and of the Pakistan government. But it appears from the tone of his speech on the occasion of the Independence Day celebrations in Srinagar last Tuesday that he does not believe that the infiltrators are some private individuals who are trying to sneak into the state either because they wish to rejoin their families or because they are looking for employment opportunities which do not exist on their side of the border or because they are fed up with the conditions there. For he has said that there is no room for complacency. Thus it will not be unfair to infer that the information available to the Sheikh clearly indicates that the Pakistan government is deliberately sending infiltrators into Indian territory. This inference cannot but be strongly reinforced if it is, indeed, true, as has been reported, that 3,000 commandos have been stationed along the border in occupied Kashmir. This is the crux of the matter, though the number of Pakistanis, who have either been detected and arrested or prevented from entering the state, is also pertinent.
It will be rash to rush to any grim conclusion at this stage, especially because it is difficult to believe that General Zia-ul-Haq would wish to repeat the blunder of President Ayub Khan and provoke this country, as the latter did. On the face of it, he has not been involved in any such activity as would suggest that he is trying to mobilise diplomatic and military support for confrontation with India. The overall situation now is also quite different from the one in 1965. It is far more favourable to India. In 1965, the United States was clearly willing to look the other way if Pakistan was able to seize the state by force with the use ofarms provided by it and President Ayub Khan could depend on China and Iran for support. Today all these governments will be shocked if General Zia decides to indulge in adventurism. Above all, despite his need to distract the Pakistani people’s attention from his own ineptitudein handling the challenge posed by Mr. Bhutto and the growing challenge to his authority, he cannot possibly believe that he can get away with so flagrant an affront to India as infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir. But as the saying goes, a pound of fact is more telling than a tonne of theory and speculation. The Union government must, therefore, quickly establish the facts and let the people know them. And if these show that the Pakistan government is sponsoring or encouraging or even conniving at the reported infiltration, New Delhi must leave it in no doubt that the penalty will be heavy and it will not be long in coming.