If the Ethiopian forces are, indeed, bogged down, as has been reported in some Western newspapers, not only in Eritrea but also in the Ogaden, two conclusions follow. Either the Soviet Union and Cuba are facing a cruel dilemma or they are pursuing a more moderate policy than has been believed in the West and elsewhere. Perhaps it is a bit of both. One has only to recall that the victory of the Soviet-Cuban backed Ethiopian army over Somali regulars in the Ogaden earlier this year had sent alarm bells ringing in the West and countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran to underline the importance of the return of Somali guerillas to the region and their reported success in regaining control of most of the countryside and roads.
The Ogaden, a province of Ethiopia, is of no great importance to any outside power. But the Soviet-Cuban backing for the Ethiopian effort not to allow Somalia to detach this Somali inhabited province had caused a great deal of concern in the West because it was assumed that the Ethiopian forces would be able to follow up their success there with a relentless offensive against the Eritrean secessionists whose defeat would place the Ethiopians and its Soviet-Cuban supporters right in the Red Sea. Even then it was well known that Moscow and Havana would not find it easy to back the Ethiopians against the Eritreans for a variety of reasons. The Eritreans claim to be Marxists; they have in fact enjoyed Cuban support; thousands of Eritrean guerillas had been trained by the Cubans. Iraq, a country with which the Soviet Union has close ties, was determined to see to it that the Eritreans were not defeated and was giving them substantial assistance in money and arms. But the West feared that the stakes were so high that the Russians and the Cubans might disregard all this, and help Ethiopia re-establish its control over Eritrea. This they have not done, not so far at least.
It is possible that at the time of switching support from Somalia – they enjoyed important naval facilities at the Somali port of Berbera – to Ethiopia, the Russians had decided that they would not help Addis Ababa crush the Eritreans, that they are sticking to this decision and that if the Ethiopians remain bogged down in Eritrea, they (the Russians) will be able to bring about a negotiated settlement. This is, of course, easier said than done. The present Ethiopian leaders are as determined to maintain the old borders as the late emperor and they are not going to follow the Kremlin’s advice in favour of a peaceful settlement. But they may have no other option in the long run because they cannot go back to the United States and expect it to resume military aid on the necessary scale. But, be that as it may, it appears likely that the Western reaction to Soviet-Cuban moves around the Horn of Africa will turn out to have been unduly alarmist.