It is as easy to exaggerate the importance of Mr. Charan Singh’s action in ruling out his “association with (the Union) government in any capacity whatsoever” as it is to underestimate it. For it is as possible to rush to the conclusion that the issue is finally joined between Mr. Desai and his supporters on the one hand and the former home minister and his aides on the other, as to take the view that Mr. Charan Singh’s statement does not change the situation in the Janata in any way. In reality, it is difficult to assess reasonably accurately the likely consequence of the breakdown of the mediatory efforts by the party chief, Mr. Chandra Shekhar, and a group of ministers. For one thing, it is not at all clear right now whether ministers other than Mr. George Fernandes will submit their resignations to the Prime Minister and, indeed, whether even he will press his. For another, it cannot be said with any assurance whether Mr. Charan Singh will quit the Janata and set up a separate party and if he does, how many MPs and MLAs will go with him. At the moment it does not look as if ministers other than Mr. Fernandes are anxious to quit the government and Mr. Charan Singh has said that he has no intention to leave the Janata. And his statement can be taken at its face value partly because he must know from his past experience that on his own he is not likely be able to come to power even in UP, Bihar and Haryana, partly because his aides are said to be opposed to a split in the Janata and partly because he, too, cannot ignore the reality of the revival of Mrs. Gandhi’s fortunes, the consequences of which for the Janata are discussed in the adjoining columns. On present reckoning the number of his firm adherents in the Janata parliamentary party is rather small.
If it is true, as has been argued in the accompanying article, that the Janata is frozen in its confederal character, it follows that the rank and file must opt for preservation of the status quo which favours Mr. Desai for the simple reason that he happens to be the prime minister. By that logic, he should be able to ride out the present storm as well as he was able to ride out the last one and to strengthen his position vis-à-vis his detractors who do not possess either an alternative leader or a viable socio-economic programme. But he must remain handicapped because his base of popular support is rather small and so is his own group of former Congress (O) MPs and MLAs. On the other hand, Mr. Charan Singh is also trapped in his contradictory stance – contradictory because while wishing to change the power balance in the party he has been unable to mount an attack of significant strength on Mr. Desai and build a reliable alliance system with its other constituents. On a superficial view, it contradicts the view expressed earlier that a firm assessment of the consequences of Mr. Charan Singh’s action is not possible at this stage. But in reality it does nothing of the kind. For in a fluid situation nothing can be ruled out. This is especially so because Mrs. Gandhi has ceased to be the great untouchable of Indian politics.