It will be highly premature to conclude that the former BLD’s (Mr. Charan Singh’s group) qualified decision to boycott the forthcoming organizational elections sets the stage for a split in the Janata Party. But it is a significant move and it can set in motion a chain reaction which can culminate in a split. The group has three specific grievances, two of which can be met by the party leadership with its co-operation. Since Mr. Charan Singh and Mr. Raj Narain quit the Union cabinet on June 29, the group has not been adequately represented in the government. And it is quite extraordinary that it should have been left out of the panel which is to supervise the organizational elections. Surely the leadership can remove these grievances. But since Mr. Charan Singh is acknowledged leader of the group and since the effort to bring about a rapprochement between him and Mr. Desai has finally failed, the former BLD will have to be content with the presence in the Union cabinet of someone else. There should be no such difficulty in respect of its representation in the election panel unless Mr. Chandra Shekhar and his colleagues in the party’s national executive are short-sighted enough to wish to make it a prestige issue and take the stand that the composition of the committee is final. That apart, there remains the third grievance which it is just not possible for anyone to remove. For the former BLD has alleged that millions of bogus members have been enrolled and it has said that in the given situation it does not make much sense for it to participate in the elections. And the charge is without doubt true. It is possible that the former BLD’s own leaders have also engaged in this dubious activity of enrolling bogus members. But that is not material inasmuch as the resolution of the problem is concerned. In plain terms, it has an unremovable excuse for boycotting the elections if it so chooses.
This inevitably raises the question whether Mr. Charan Singh has made up his mind or is likely to make up his mind to use this pretext to boycott the organizational elections even if his two other grievances are met. Clearly it is not possible to answer this question at this stage partly because Mr. Charan Singh has not revealed his thinking – only the other day he ruled out the possibility of his leaving the Janata – and partly because he cannot possibly disregard the views of the “doves” in his group, two of whom happen to be chief ministers of the politically important states of U.P. and Bihar. He and his supporters can, of course, stay on in the party even if they decided to boycott the elections. But that will be the worst choice from their point of view because it will at once erode their influence in it and deny them the opportunity of mobilising support for themselves under an independent banner. As such this option cannot be considered a practical one. This too does not settle the issue. For there is another consideration which he cannot ignore. Mr. Charan Singh cannot possibly ignore the possibility that by quitting the Janata he may bring down the governments in U.P., Bihar and Haryana and force a midterm poll, the outcome of which may determine the future of the Union government itself. Thus only if he is prepared to provoke a crisis of that magnitude can he afford to boycott organizational elections. Indeed, only if he is contemplating a deal with Mrs. Gandhi can he push his present move to its logical conclusion. The invitations to Mr. Devraj Urs and Mr. Chenna Reddy to address the proposed kisan rally on December 23 points in that direction. But it is too feeble a signal to be regarded as a firm indication of his intentions.