By amending the President’s address on the strength of their majority in the Rajya Sabha, opposition parties have set a new precedent. This is the first time since the promulgation of the Constitution in 1950 that the President’s address has been so amended. As it happens, the opposition’s case for doing so is also weak. The President’s address to the joint session of Parliament is intended to spell out the government’s policies; it is not meant to hold out “assurances” to the opposition. In the present case, the opposition parties have raised two specific issues – defections of legislators to the Congress (I) in various states and the proposal to dissolve vidhan sabhas in non-Congress (I)-ruled states. However undesirable and reprehensible one may consider sudden shifts of loyalty on the part of legislators, one must admit that there is no legal bar to these. All attempts to frame a suitable legislation to end the malaise have so far failed. The Janata, too, failed to legislate on the issue and much of the opposition to the bill it had drafted came from within its own ranks. The ruling party can of course, refuse to accept the new converts within its fold. One can even argue that it should, in the interest of the long-term health of democracy. But it is not obliged to act in such a high-minded manner. In other words, it makes no sense for the opposition to amend the President’s address on this is issue. The amendment is outside the framework of the existing laws of the land. As for the dissolution of the vidhan sabhas in question, the Janata at least should recognise that having set a dangerous precedent in April 1977, it is not entitled to protest if Mrs. Gandhi follows suit. It can point out that in 1977 she took the view it is taking now. But at least the Congress party did not use its majority in the Rajya Sabha then to amend the President’s address.
However, since the opposition parties have acted, the pertinent question now is what are likely to be the consequences? On the face of it, they have opted for the politics of confrontation to which Mrs. Gandhi is bound to react sharply. Her own speech in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday can be cited to support this view. She said that an effort was being made that “these state governments create as much difficulty as possible in the implementation of our declared objectives and declared programmes.” It can also be argued that the behaviour of the opposition in the Upper House strengthens the position of the “hawks” in the Congress (I) who favour early dissolution of vidhan sabhas in states where their party is not in office. But it may be rash to establish these linkages. While the opposition parties have without doubt asserted themselves, it does not necessarily follow that they have gone on the warpath against the government. Similarly, Mrs. Gandhi often does the unexpected. She can talk tough and act soft and vice-versa, though it will be wrong to infer on the basis of her past performance that her action will not match her words. By displaying the capacity to unite in the Rajya Sabha, the opposition parties have shown that they may be able to come together in case the Prime Minister springs fresh elections on them in a number of states. While the issue is by no means clinched, even the hawks in the Congress (I) cannot ignore this possibility altogether. We do not know how Mrs. Gandhi is interpreting the mandate she has received in the recent poll to the Lok Sabha. We do not know whether she has convinced herself that she is in a position to secure a similar mandate in the Hindi-speaking states if she dissolves the existing legislatures and orders fresh elections soon. And it will be premature for us to speculate on whether she would be justified in taking an optimistic view of the prospects of her party. But we can make three points. First, a fresh poll in the Hindi-speaking belt would be a gamble which may or may not pay off. We regard it significant that Mrs. Gandhi’s vote in this region as a whole has not risen significantly since June 1977 which means that the popular disenchantment with the Janata-Lok Dal is not as profound as the result of the Lok Sabha election in terms of seats might indicate. Secondly, if the Congress (I) does not win a clear majority in UP and Bihar, the importance of its recent landslide victory will be reduced. Thirdly, if the opposition parties do well at the hustings, they are likely to become aggressive. And this is likely to produce the politics of confrontation most of us dread.