Even before Mr AR Antulay came out publicly in support of the Congress (I) dissidents in Maharashtra last Saturday, it was widely assumed that he was supporting them from behind the scene. But there was not much verifiable evidence in support of this assumption. It was based on deduction. Mr Antulay had been opposed to Mr Babasaheb Bhosale; some of his supporters such as Mr Suresh Jain had openly campaigned against the chief minister; and some of the present dissidents were said to be keeping in touch with him. On the face of it, this impression suited Mr Antulay admirably. It kept him in the public mind and it helped him maintain his claim that in spite of his removal from the office of chief minister and membership of the Congress (I) working committee and the criminal cases pending against him in a law court he remained a reckonable factor in Maharashtra’s political life. And since he did not publicly do anything which the Central Congress (I) leadership could describe as “anti-party activities”, he was not exposed to the risk of disciplinary action against him. Why then has he chosen to come out openly in support of the dissidents?
Mr Antulay gives the impression of being impetuous. So it is possible that he has acted rashly. But while this possibility cannot be ruled out, it does not look as if the former chief minister has acted without calculation. Witness the care he has taken not to cause any offence to Mrs Gandhi and his claim regarding the number of MLAs who have seen him either on their own and at his request. His figure of 130 dissidents is far larger than the ones the dissident leader, Mr Balasaheb Pawar, has been putting out. Thus without saying so he has suggested that he is in a position to swell the ranks of the dissidents if he were to choose to do so. But assuming that his main purpose is once again to project himself as a significant force in the state’s public life, why has he chosen this time to demand the removal of Mr Bhosale? One possibility is that he has not chosen this time and that this has been decided for him by the upsurge in the activities of the dissidents. By this logic, he could no longer afford to wait if he wished to project himself as the leader of the dissidents. He could also have calculated that whichever way Mrs Gandhi responded to his challenge, he would be the gainer. If she chose to ignore it in view of the impending elections in Andhra and Karnataka, he would have drawn the limelight on himself without any cost. And it she chose to take action against the dissidents he would have placed himself in a good position to claim to be their leader. If Mr Antulay has indeed made this calculation, he has shown himself capable of considerable shrewdness.