India enters 1983 in an uncertain mood. The tempers are still not too short. But a small incident causes an explosion. The army has been called out in Trivandrum; the police have had to open fire in Alleppey; prohibitory orders have been imposed in Bhiwandi in Maharashtra; and tension simmers just below the surface in Baroda. There is right now no indication that things are going to improve in the months ahead. We can bemoan this harsh reality; we cannot wish it away.
The country has witnessed one of the worst monsoons in recent years and the winter rains have so far failed. This has brought down agricultural production in a big way and adversely affected industrial production. We are in the midst of a serious recession which is best illustrated by the fact that though almost one-third of the textile industry (the mills in Bombay) has been closed for a year, the others are finding it difficult to dispose of their output. It will not be surprising if we have a negative rate of growth in 1982-83. And so if the economic situation has not been difficult enough in itself, the Union government has compounded it with its so-called liberal import policy and its tight money measures. The first has led to dumping by recession-hit industrialized countries, the second to a fall in demand and the two together to a sharp decline in industrial production. In the economic field, the only saving grace is that the prices are reasonably stable.
It is not a one-to-one ratio between economic troubles and social tensions. Riots like those in Meerut and Baroda can take place in a good year. Indeed, to an extent social tension is the inevitable result of economic growth which disturbs the existing equilibrium. But there can be little doubt that while a good rate of growth, say, five percent a year, can cushion the shock of social change, especially mass migration to towns, a low one aggravates it. Again, anti-social elements, who account for much of the violence in Baroda and Meerut, are as much the product of urbanisation as of economic stagnation. So the prospect unfortunately is bleak.
As it happens, 1983 is opening with elections to state legislatures in Andhra and Karnataka. The result will have a profound impact on the country’s political scene. We do not wish to indulge in crystal-gazing. But the very fact that the Congress (I) is having to battle hard to retain these states, till recently its strongholds, speaks for itself. At the very least this adds to the feeling of uncertainty and confusion created, among other things, by the upsurge of dissidence in the Congress (I), the impression that corruption is growing like a cancer in the country’s body politic and the ineptitude and arrogance of the men in office.