There is a widespread speculation in the West that the hardliners are in command in Moscow and that Mr. Chernenko is suffering from emphysema (a form of bronchitis associated with lung and heart conditions). The first part of the speculation is based on the impression which the Italian, Spanish and West German foreign ministers are believed to have formed as a result of their recent discussions with Soviet leaders during their trips to Moscow. And it has been reinforced by a number of specific decisions by the Kremlin – the boycott of the forthcoming Olympics in Los Angeles in the United States, the refusal to return to the nuclear disarmament talks and the harsh treatment being meted out to Dr. Sakharov and his wife. Similarly, the second part of the speculation appears to be the result of a leak from the West German foreign office. In its issue dated May 26, The Guardian, London, has reported that during his talks with the West German foreign minister, Mr. Genscher, “Mr. Chernenko, who became leader just over 100 days ago, was restricted to reading from prepared statements” and that “even when engaged in this activity, according to German officials, he behaved in a ‘wooden’ sort of way, breathing with difficulty”.
It is obvious that we in India are in no position to confirm or deny this report regarding Mr. Chernenko’s health. But similar Western reports regarding Mr. Brezhnev’s health turned to be reasonably accurate more often than not, though he often surprised the world by his capacity to recover. So there is no reason to dispute the West German report this time, though it is quite possible that like his mentor-predecessor, Mr. Chernenko too will manage to carry on for some years. So the real issue is whether there is a connection between Mr. Chernenko’s poor health and the atmosphere of deep freeze in Moscow. It is difficult to answer this question on two counts. First, while it is true that at the time of taking over on the death of Mr. Brezhnev, Mr. Chernenko did speak of his desire to revive the policy of detente, it is possible that he does not regard that as a practical proposition in the given situation. Secondly, President Reagan’s stance towards the Soviet Union is enough to justify a hard line on the part of the Kremlin towards the United States. It is, therefore, not necessary to provide for a power struggle in the Soviet Union to explain its policy. But there is usually a connection between domestic developments and foreign policy. It is thus not impossible that Mr. Gromyko and Mr. Ustinov, the defence minister, are setting the pace in the Kremlin and that the younger group headed by Mr. Gorbachov is marking time.