The Congress leadership in New Delhi has been well advised not to intervene in the internal power struggle that has inevitably broken out in the AIADMK in the wake of Mr MG Ramachandran’s death. It is important in the larger and long-term national interest that the Centre gives and is seen to give the rival factions time to sort out their differences if they can. But realism demands recognition of the possibility that the Veerappan and Jayalalitha factions may not be able to come together. The situation might have been more hopeful if Mrs Janaki Ramachandran, who has taken over as chief minister; possessed leadership qualities. But while it might be premature to write her off, it does not look that she can rise above factionalism and seek a rapprochement with the Jayalalitha group. She owes her office to Mr Veerappan and his supporters and lacks any kind of political experience. Indeed if it were not for her antagonism towards Ms Jayalalitha, she might not have jumped into the fray at all. On the face of it, Ms Jayalalitha is also likely to be as uncompromising in her attitude as her principal rival, Mr Veerappan. She sees herself, not without reason, not only as a natural and legitimate successor to Mr Ramachandran but also a victim of machinations by Mrs Janaki Ramachandran and Mr Veerappan since 1984. If she in fact enjoys the support of a significant majority of AIADMK activists and if she manages to retain this support in the face of the efforts her rivals can be depended upon to make to weaken it, she may well conclude that she can afford to bide her time. So the prospect is that the factional struggle in the AIADMK will continue and possibly intensify.
That would make it difficult for the Congress leadership to maintain its present stance of neutrality. But it may be some time before that compulsion comes into play. Meanwhile the Congress can hold its hand and wait for the situation to crystallize. A couple of points may be made in this connection. First, the very fact that Mr Veerappan and his associates have brought in Mrs Janaki Ramachandran suggests that they were not confident of coping with Ms Jayalalitha’s challenge on their own. So it remains to be seen whether they can manage to hold together and retain the overwhelming support they now enjoy in the AIADMK legislature party in coming months. Their success in either regard should not be taken for granted. Secondly, unless Mrs Janaki Ramachandran comes to display qualities of leadership which have not been in evidence so far, she could become a liability and facilitate the rise of factionalism in the Veerappan group itself. Thirdly, the DMK leader, Mr Karunanidhi, may feel obliged to reveal his preference. He is shrewd enough to realize that it is in his interest to stay out of the AIADMK’s squabbles as long as he can. But it may not be possible for him to do so if a threat develops to Mrs Ramachandran’s government. An early election cannot suit him. As such he has a stake in the state government’s survival. He is also likely to calculate that Ms Jayalalitha would be a far more formidable rival at the hustings than Mrs Janaki Ramachandran. A tilt by Mr Karunanidhi towards the chief minister would obviously present the Congress leadership with a new situation. That, however, is in the realm of the future which cannot be anticipated and made into a basis for action.