Mr. Rajiv Gandhi’s invitation to President Zia-ul-Haq to discuss Afghanistan is as surprising as it is sudden. On the face of it, the move makes no sense at all. India’s and Pakistan’s interests diverge so completely on Afghanistan that it is just inconceivable that the two leaders can agree on a common objective. For, there cannot be the slightest doubt that while Islamabad would like to see the end of the present PDPA set-up in Kabul, India would wish the PDPA to be an important element in the proposed coalition government there. Then there is the indisputable fact that President Zia is faced with extraordinarily complicated problem of coping with the Mujahideen and that Mr Rajiv Gandhi is in no position to ease his task for the good and obvious reason that India has no leverage with the Mujahideen. No wonder that General Zia’s first response to the telephonic invitation on Thursday was lukewarm. It will, indeed, be surprising if he agrees to fly to New Delhi for discussions with Mr Rajiv Gandhi which he must know in advance will be infructuous.
It should not have been necessary to remind the foreign policy experts surrounding the Prime Minister that since the Soviet military intervention in December 1979, Afghanistan has been an issue essentially between the two superpowers, with Pakistan serving as a surrogate for the United States, and as such it has to be handled and is being handled by them directly. It is still not established that Mr Gorbachev’s announcement regarding the withdrawal of Soviet troops followed some kind of Soviet-US agreement. But two points can safely be made. First, since the announcement intensive discussions have been going on between Washington and Moscow, the US secretary of state, Mr Shultz’s visit to Moscow being only a part of them. Secondly, even if an agreement of some sort was reached between the two superpowers, it is going to be extremely difficult to implement it. For there are other actors in the drama whom they cannot order about – the Mujahideen and Iran. In fact, America’s and Pakistan’s interests too do not converge. While for the United States, the first priority must be the withdrawal of Soviet troops, Pakistan’s must be a measure of stability and order which can persuade at least a significant section of the three million refugees to start going back. Washington can live with a chaotic Afghanistan, possibly fragmented among warring tribes with no central authority worth the name; Pakistan cannot. Surely it is sheer adventurism for India to wish to involve itself in this unholy mess.
The issues in Afghanistan looked deceptively simple before Mr Gorbachov took the bit between his teeth and made the momentous announcement that beginning on May 15 the Soviet Union would withdraw its troops in 10 months. His action has exposed the complexities of the situation to the full public gaze. Soit is virtually impossible to say what will happen now. For all we know, the Geneva talks under UN auspices will open on March 2 as scheduled. But it will be a miracle if an agreement can be reached by March 15 as visualized by Mr Gorbachov in his withdrawal statement. The Soviets cannot possibly agree to dissolve the PDPA set-up in Kabul and install the Peshawar-based Mujahideen groups in power; on the present evidence, Pakistan cannot accept anything less because the Mujahideen have made it abundantly clear that they will not go along with any compromise; Islamabad’s capacity to discipline them at least in the short run is severely limited because the Mujahideen are flush with weapons and funds and Iran is more than ready to supplant Pakistan. This is the biggest test for President Zia since he seized power in 1977. And for Mr Gorbachov, even more than his own survival may be at stake. The stake may well be the future of reforms in the Soviet Union itself. Mr Khrushchev’s reforms were aborted on the streets of Budapest in 1956, and Mr Brezhnev’s in Prague’s in 1968. So it is open to question whether he can go ahead with the proposed withdrawal if the Geneva talks fail, as they well might. And it is absurd even to speculate on possible US moves in coming weeks. For, it is a safe bet that Washington no longer possesses an Afghanistan policy and that, given the manner of decision-making there, one is not likely to emerge soon. Mr Rajiv Gandhi must be a very brave man to wish to get trapped in such shifting sands. As it is, we are fully stretched in Sri Lanka and Punjab.