When I wrote last week that in banning the RSS in the absence of evidence of its leadership’s involvement in the demolition of the Babri structure in Ayodhya, the government had fired the last shot in its arsenal, I assumed that the memory of the Emergency and its consequences would be deterrent enough for the Congress leadership and dissuade it from undermining the constitution openly. I was wrong.
I also assumed that Mr Narasimha Rao would not allow itself to be outmanoeuvred to the point that he would find himself obliged to dismiss BJP governments in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh for no good reason. Again, I was wrong.
Indeed, it is now difficult to say whether Mr Rao has been outflanked, or he has chosen to follow Mr Arjun Singh’s lead. The doubt is caused by the so-called informal meeting of the Congress Working Committee on Monday. While it is obvious that the meeting was convened three days in advance of the one scheduled for Thursday in order to orchestrate the demand for dismissal of the three state governments, it is not quite clear who took the initiative.
Obviously, the meeting could not have been convened without Mr Rao’s consent since he happens to be Congress president. But it is as possible that he yielded to pressure as that he himself took the lead. Either way, the issue is clinched. The Congress leadership has closed ranks on Mr Arjun Singh’s platform even if Mr Rao continues to be Prime Minister and party president. Mr Singh has won hands down.
The CWC’s ‘informal’ meeting should have sent alarm bells ringing, especially since it was reported on Tuesday morning that the government was planning to dismiss the BJP governments. But such was the faith of a large number of observers and commentators in Mr Rao’s respect for the Constitution and distaste for the politics of confrontation that they found it difficult to take the report at its face value. Some of them were not quite sure that he would be able to hold his ground. Even so, they continued to hope that he would at least try to buy time. The piece that appeared in this slot on Wednesday bears the mark of such a hope, as perceptive readers will have noticed. The piece had to be modified a little late on Tuesday night to take care of the dismissals.
It is hardly necessary to belabour the point that the decision is mala fide and divests the Union government of much of its constitutional legitimacy. Even the form has been barely observed. The governors were asked to send suitable reports after the first meeting of the Cabinet on Tuesday morning when it was clear that the chances were that the governments would indeed be dismissed. Nothing, of course, need be said about the governors. With rare exceptions such as Mr Dharma Vira in Indira Gandhi’s period and Mr Surjeet Singh Barnala more recently, they as a class have always obliged.
In the circumstances, it is safer to take a bleak view of the government’s intention and assume that it will amend the People’s Representation Act to debar the BJP, the second largest party and officially recognised opposition in the Lok Sabha, than to think that Mr Rao will still not go over the brink. In fact, a hint to that effect was dropped in Parliament on Wednesday.
That Indian democracy will be reduced to a sham in that event cannot be a subject of dispute. It is a self-evident proposition.
The tragedy is that sham democracy will not give the country even the limited advantage that Mrs Gandhi’s emergency did for about a year or so. Trains did run on time then. They will not next time.
The ruling group cannot become cohesive in the process of strangulating democracy and acquire the capacity and determination to impose a measure of discipline on the corrupt, inefficient, and sprawling bureaucracy and workers. Mrs Gandhi could inspire fear; Mr Rao and/or Mr Arjun Singh cannot.
Mr Rao is clearly a casualty of the decision to dismiss duly elected governments without rhyme or reason. His commitment to constitutional propriety has come into question and the impression has spread that he has followed Mr Arjun Singh’s lead, if not diktat. He will find it difficult to rehabilitate himself on either count.
The same can be said about the Congress. Whatever prospects there were of its staying in power in New Delhi for the full five-year term and in the process winning back some of the lost support in much of North India have been badly compromised. It may still be able to cling to office but it will be under constant pressure to seek a fresh mandate.
Three points may be made in this regard. First, its legitimacy has been undermined on account of its recent actions and whatever left will have disappeared once it brings up legislation to debar the BJP from contesting elections.
Secondly, it has lost its ability to balance the increasingly strident Left Front-Janata Dal combine with the BJP.
Thirdly, in ideological terms, the initiative has passed on to the Left which was grasping for breath not long ago as a result of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and collapse of communism all over the world. It will now be calling the shots with the able assistance of fellow travellers in universities and the media.
Given the government’s continued dependence on the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, it may be premature to write off the programme of economic reforms. Indeed, as the government’s democratic credentials have come into question, it will need to pursue this programme with vigour in order to retain some goodwill in the West.
But its capacity to resist the Janata Dal-Left pressure has been greatly reduced and that can be decisive.
On a surface view, the Left Front and the Janata Dal are the beneficiaries of government actions since December 6. But their gains are short-term, if not illusory.
One has only to talk to ordinary Hindus in New Delhi itself to discover that the BJP has finally become their party. It may not be a nice thing to put it on record, but the fact remains that most of us have no idea of the jubilation that the demolition in Ayodhya has produced among Hindus. I am still reluctant to draw the conclusion that it cuts across social categories.
But I find myself being pushed in that direction by what highly Westernised and affluent Hindus say to me in private. The spate of malafide actions against the BJP cannot but confirm them in the view that once again they are under attack.
There are reports that BJP MPs and MLAs may resign from legislature. That will be an ill advised move. Whatever the provocation, the BJP must not join those who are busy undermining the Constitution which, despite being torn to shreds, remains the only basis on which the task of the country’s governance can, in the final analysis, be managed.
In all probability, the others will do the deed.
In 1962 Parliament adopted a resolution on the border dispute with China. Not an inch, it said. The resolution has hung like an albatross round the country’s neck since. The price, by any reckoning, has been high.
But the price of a self-inflicted internal haemorrhage is bound to be much a higher. And this is what the anti-BJP resolution on the anvil will mean.
The Observer of Business and Politics, December 17, 1992