The bell tolls for Raja V.P. Singh. He has to go. The question is how and when. The search for a new leader has started in the Janata Dal in right earnest. Biju Patnaik appears to have taken the initiative, though he would not admit it. At the time of writing (September 13), it has been reported that he has held discussions on the issue of a ‘snap poll’, with Chandra Shekhar, Mulayam Singh Yadav (UP Chief Minister), Chimanbhai Patel (Gujarat Chief Minister), and Ajit Singh (Union Industry Minister), among others.
The search may not succeed immediately. But it settles one point. Some of the senior Janata Dal leaders too are alarmed over the consequences of the Raja Saheb’s decision to Mandalise (read atomise) India and they have more or less come to the conclusion that it has become necessary to replace him as leader of the party and as Prime Minister.
I for one, however, feel that they have got hold of the wrong end of the stick and thus exposed themselves to the risk of failure. If they are agreed, as they appear to be, that the Raja has gravely compromised the future of the country and the party for the wholly personal end of keeping himself in power in the style of his forbears, they must first secure his exit. The choice of the successor can be left to the party.
Consensus cannot be an end in itself in a democracy of which debate and contest are in fact the essence. It can at best help cover up divisions which it would be healthier to expose to public view and scrutiny. The talk of consensus reminds me of the communist concept of ‘democratic centralism’ whereby the Stalins and the Maos of the world have sought to stifle all dissent.
The Janata Dal should, in any case, learn from its own bitter experience. In the effort to prevent Chandra Shekhar from contesting for the leadership of the party last December, its top leaders, including Biju Patnaik, not only resorted to a shameful conspiracy to take him by surprise but also made themselves V.P. Singh’s prisoners. The Raja could not have adopted the imperial style he has and acted wilfully and arbitrarily if the measure of support for him in the party had been tested and shown to be what it in fact was.
The Raja is clearly a schizoid. On the one hand, he resigned as UP’s Chief Minister without even a reference to Indira Gandhi, and, on the other, he has not hesitated to plunge the country into utter confusion for the sake of his personal position and power. So it is difficult to predict what he will do in the coming weeks. It is as likely that he will do all in his power to hold on to office as that he will throw in his towel and retire from the ring.
The Raja has not needed great prescience to know that all political parties are shy of a fresh poll. They have proclaimed it loudly. This has been as true of the Congress as of the BJP and the two Communist parties. V.P. Singh has naturally been using this fact to keep them suitably frightened by holding out, though indirectly, the threat of recommending dissolution of the Lok Sabha. For the record, he has ruled out a snap election. But I have little doubt that newspaper reports on his supposed discussion with President Venkataraman on August 28 on the subject can be traced back to people close to him.
This attempt at blackmail could work because the impression prevailed that the Janata Dal was solidly ranged behind him, despite Chandra Shekhar’s principled and consistent opposition to him. His success in outmanoeuvring and finally dismissing Devi Lal strengthened this view. Then came his announcement to implement the Mandal Commission ‘report’. This provided an opportunity to his drum-beaters to compare him with Chanakya as a strategist and make it out that he had outmanoeuvred all other political leaders. The fact of the paralysis of all political parties for weeks provided confirmation for this proposition.
This story is now over. The first indication that the Janata Dal was far from united behind the Raja came with the resignation of Vishwendra Singh, young MP from Bharatpur, from the Lok Sabha on the Mandal issue. This was followed by the election of Chandra Shekhar-Devi Lal supporters as secretary and deputy leaders of the Janata Dal parliamentary party and secretary Dhawan’s well-argued public attack on V.P. Singh’s decision to implement the Mandal Commission ‘report’ which has few parallels in terms of fabrication of evidence in any civilised society. And now comes the search for a new leader.
The bluff is all but played out. V.P. Singh is reduced to the position of a caretaker Prime Minister, as argued in these columns last week, in substance, if not in form. But if he does choose still to recommend dissolution of the Lok Sabha, President Venkataraman may find it difficult to reject it. The Head of State should be spared the controversy which is bound to follow whatever his decision. The Janata Dal leaders themselves should ensure that the Raja does not tender such advice to the President. At least in the new context, Cabinet Ministers should be able to summon the courage to say ‘no’ to the Raja.
On the substantive issue, however, there is scope for genuine difference of opinion. If it can be argued that the very announcement of the decision to Mandalise India has necessitated a fresh poll so that popular will can be properly tested, it is equally legitimate to plead that an election on the Mandal Commission ‘report’ can polarise the electorate and spell disaster for both our nationhood and democracy, that it is necessary to buy time so that passions aroused wilfully by the Raja can cool down and the question of helping the genuinely handicapped to come up, can be discussed rationally, and agreed upon broadly, as in the case of the Scheduled Castes and Tribes.
I for one was inclined to favour the first option despite the dangers inherent in it till last Wednesday (September 12), that is, before it became known that a move was afoot to find a new leader for the Janata Dal. Now I think the second option should be preferred. Incidentally that would also accommodate the wishes of political parties which, for reasons of their own, have been opposed to an early poll and have been inclined to keep the present arrangement going.
Implicit in the second option is the proposition that the Raja goes and with him the government’s decision to implement the Mandal Commission ‘report’. On these two issues there is no scope for ambiguity and equivocation.
V.P. Singh must be either dishonest or naive beyond belief in order to be able to argue that the people gave him the mandate to implement the Mandal Commission ‘report’ because it figured in the election manifesto of the Janata Dal. In 1989 the Janata Dal secured only around 18 per cent of votes polled. This cannot be regarded as a popular mandate for any programme of action, not to speak of so divisive and controversial an issue as the Mandal Commission fabrication.
Even so his claim might have been considered less incredible if he had at least consulted his BJP and Communist allies and secured their consent, though even in that event, the spread and intensity of the student revolt would by itself have sufficed to divest him of legitimacy which, as I suggested last week, is critically dependent on the goodwill and support of the intelligentsia.
Apart from a change in the leadership of the Janata Dal, another difficulty will have to be overcome if an early fresh poll is to be avoided. A confrontation has been building up between the Mulayam Singh Yadav set-up in Lucknow (it should be distinguished from the UP Government as such because Yadav is distrustful of the administrative machinery) and the BJP on the Ram Janambhoomi issue. Yadav has been unduly provocative in his utterances in respect of the BJP and too brazen in his attempts to win over the Muslim vote. But the BJP leadership has also been exasperated by the tricks the Raja has been playing with it. His decision to Mandalise India has served as the proverbial last straw that breaks the camel’s back.
On the present reckoning, a head-on clash beginning on October 30, when the construction of the temple by VHP volunteers is scheduled to commence, if not earlier, has become unavoidable. It is now too late for either side to retreat, especially after L.K. Advani has made a public announcement that he shall be at the Ram Janambhoomi site on October 30 at the end of a 10,000-km Somnath-Ayodhya rathyatra, which he is undertaking to mobilise support for the construction of the temple.
It may, however, still be possible a avoid a final collapse of the JD- BJP alliance if V.P. Singh is replaced by someone less virulently anti-Hindu and machiavellian and more sympathetic to the aspirations of the Hindus, on the one hand, and more willing and able to control Mulayam Singh Yadav, on the other. Yadav too faces a situation he had not bargained for as a result of the Raja’s decision on the Mandal Commission ‘report’. I do not believe he can now wish to face an early election, indeed, that may partly explain his participation in the move to find a new leader for the Janata Dal.
Reports from UP suggest that the Muslim-Ahir-Jat-Gujjar-Rajput MAJGAR) alliance has been reduced to Ahir-Gujjar (AG) since the Rajputs and the Jats are furious over the Mandal issue and the Muslims are confused. The enthusiastic reception Rajiv Gandhi got during his recent visit to the Amethi constituency provides confirmation for these reports. All in all, the chances appear to be that the Congress would win not only in the country as a whole, as suggested by the latest MARG opinion poll, but also in UP.
Even if this assessment of the scene in UP is not quite accurate, the prospect of a Congress government in New Delhi cannot be welcome to the ‘warrior’ from Faizabad. He could relish the idea of taking on the BJP on the Ram Janambhoomi question so long as he was assured of a friendly government and Prime Minister in New Delhi. He has reasons not to be so keen on a confrontation with the BJP when the Manda Raja’s throne has become wobbly. It has been reported that he is particularly distrustful of the provincial armed constabulary (PAC). What if members of the units deployed in Ayodhya stand aside or even join the kar seva on October 30?
The situation is too confused and full of contradictions to permit a firm assessment of the likely course of events. Two propositions are, however, obvious enough. If V.P. Singh decides and manages to hold on to office, pressure should be built up on the BJP and the CPI-M (in that order) to make them withdraw their support to him. The longer the Raja stays in office, the greater the devastation. Second, if on V.P. Singh’s resignation, the Janata Dal splits down the middle, the Congress should not either help the friendly faction to form a government with its support, or try to form a coalition government with it. Any move, which smells of behind-the-scene intrigue, is likely to strengthen the Raja’s position.
I am in no position to vouch for the accuracy or otherwise of earlier reports that the Congress was backing Devi Lal in his battle with V.P. Singh in the hope that the former would be able to win over about 60 Janata Dal MPs and to form a government with its support from the outside. I also cannot say whether Devi Lal was prepared to play along with such a plan. Be that as it may, however, the scene has changed dramatically and the new situation necessitates that the battle against the Raja and his diabolical plans and ambitions are fought openly. Manipulative politics is a luxury the country cannot now afford. Indeed, in the event of the Raja surviving in office, it shall be Rajiv Gandhi’s patriotic duty to press for a fresh poll.
I have little doubt that V.P. Singh will meet his just desserts in an election. The Janata Dal itself will certainly split, with the Raja leading an Ahir-Kurmi-Keori formation and that too only in name (the de facto leader will certainly be Mulayam Singh Yadav); it is out of the question that the BJP will gang up with him ever again. By this reckoning, a Congress victory is assured.
But let us assume for the sake of argument that V.P. Singh’s caste arithmetic is not as wonky as I regard it to be and that he in fact makes it at the hustings. That would lead to a veritable disaster. The Indian intelligentsia will be sought to be emasculated, if not decimated, and the polity to be castecised. But there shall at least be no deception about the new rulers.
Sunday Mail, 16 September 1990